Welcome back to the table for the.

Friday, August 14th, 2026 installment of Market Plus.

They're still here.

Jeff French and Ross Baldwin.

I didn't drive you away.

No, not this time.

>> No.

We're good.

>> We let him do all the talking at the end, didn't we?

>> That's all right.

>> It kind of happens.

I didn't I asked Ross, we'll get your take on this.

The the the plant closings in a minute.

Give me your sense of I mean, you were in Illinois guy for a long time.

Truly.

Will these two plants have a big impact on who who's impacted the most on that?

>> Oh, I think, you know, the cattle feeders out there, I mean, greatly.

I mean, if you're if you're selling fat cattle, you want as many people competing for your product.

Yeah.

So it's going to affect, I talked to a couple here today and they said even the Pennsylvania one might even hurt a little bit more because they were using that.

So yeah, I think it's, you know, it's immediately affected the market.

But I think, you know, it's going to affect that region in the next 5 to 10 years greatly.

>> And I should say, we're actually discussing Collin and Iowa.

And also Greg's question, both of them had good questions about this plant.

All right, Ross, I asked you in the discussion, the main discussion, we had a nice little time to break down these.

These plants.

Are there enough little facilities?

And I'm talking not not just lockers, but Covid really kind of accelerated the return of some of them.

And then we've already seen some closures and some pullbacks.

Is this enough of an industry move right now to help someone who's smaller processing facility.

>> It will eventually probably help lead to some added capacity at some of the smaller plants.

The USDA is still had money that they're throwing out there for small packing facilities.

And, and that's even made headlines over the last couple of months.

I believe it's $500 million that they were investing into this.

So over time, yeah, it will probably lead to these facilities.

If that money is out there, people are going to go after it and you should.

But yeah, I don't it's going to be tough.

It's tough to bring on these new plants.

We've had the new plant in North Platte, American Foods in Missouri.

Those are the two newest plants that have have opened.

There's there's still another plant that's trying to get built, but it's a struggle.

But I do think over the next few years, there will be added capacity across some of these smaller plants.

>> Okay Secretary Rollins, a couple weeks ago said, I've got three places I think we can bring cattle in.

Was the market already responding to that prior to these closures this week, and did it respond enough?

>> Yeah, the market definitely responded to to that headline before Rollins came out and said that.

And you could look at a technical chart and see that we sold off for, what, 3 to 4 weeks heading into when the announcement finally came out that they were going to open the Douglas, Arizona port.

So it sure seemed like the market was already trading that before the rest of us got that announcement.

But I do think at the time we we had priced in enough because then we put a bottom in and started rallying.

Then when the Screwworm case got announced in the US, then we were limited up.

After the Screwworm case got announced also.

So it did seem like it had traded enough.

But now the market needs to really wrestle with the fact that Douglas.

Unless something dramatically changes between now and the 24th, Douglas is on schedule to reopen on the 24th.

And then within a few weeks, that's how they're going to evaluate it.

And then that's when Santa Teresa and the Columbus, New Mexico ports are scheduled to open, they said within a few weeks after that.

So the struggle the market's got is the reality of these ports reopening.

And to see what for volumes cross the border, and do we need to take another leg lower Douglas by itself is only 500 head a day.

I believe if you go off historical values or historical flows, it's about 8% of what comes across for the total of Mexican feeder cattle.

But so Douglas by itself not a needle mover.

If you would open up Santa Teresa, that's.

I believe that one accounts for around 24% of historical flows.

And then the Columbus port is probably another 5%.

So the three of them, though, push 40%.

That changes things.

>> Yeah.

And so I was going to you're talking trickle, but now all of a sudden it sounds like you've opened up a much bigger Homan.

>> Correct.

And what the, the unknown right now though, is Mexico has been slaughtering these cattle at home and their feeders have been adding value there.

Now it's all about competition, right?

But we don't know what's going to cross.

It doesn't seem like it's going to be what we were used to beforehand.

So we're going to need to see it.

But let's just say 40% of the previous total number of 1.2 million, it don't take long.

And you're talking half a million head of feeder cattle.

That's not going to happen immediately.

But if the market starts worrying about that, these markets don't wait around and trade news.

When it finally happens, we're trading it well in advance, and it's going to continue to be a headline for the feeder cattle market as we move forward.

>> Jeff, what's Monday's biggest headline driven market?

Which ones I'm sorry, which headline will drive and carry over into next week in grains?

>> I think it's the two wars.

I mean mainly Russia, Ukraine Does that increase in attacks?

Do they get something worked out?

I mean we've seen that before.

Yeah.

You know does the wheat market open $0.30 lower on on that.

You know I don't anticipate that it you know, Ukraine floated a cease fire on civilian vessels and this was after they sent their drones in and Russia came back and said, no, no, thanks.

So it will see what the attacks look like over the weekend.

And I expect wheat to take the lead.

>> All right.

Let's talk, if we could for a minute.

New crop Stephen Wisconsin submitted this question on our Facebook page, which, by the way, one whale of a response over last week for one of our stories.

So as long as you keep it civil, we do like that.

But Stephen Wisconsin wants to know new crop corn, beans and wheat store and wait, Jeff, sell off the combine, wait for a more accurate, accurate acreage report.

>> You know, I like to sell into strength.

So I mean, I think you do a variety of all there.

I mean, you know, selling ten, 15%.

I don't think it's a bad plan here, but you do have to follow that up with, with what we have going on in the world and the potential of the El Nino down in Brazil here this winter, there summer during their growing season, you got to follow up cash sales with call options.

But storing some grain here this winter, I think it's an absolute good idea.

You know, get some risk management, put options on paper to protect the downside.

But no, I don't think it's a bad idea to do a little bit of both.

>> It's been a couple of weeks since I've seen you, but in July, the El Nino was supposed to be above average.

Precipitation continue into August.

That's holding true.

So are you putting a lot of stock in the super El Nino or El Nino having an impact in South America?

>> Well, I can just tell you how it's been up here.

And it's definitely feels like a super El Nino up here.

I mean, it just feels like we're, you know, living in the rainforest.

I mean, it rains almost every other day.

So we'll have to see what it brings.

But the risk is there.

I mean, and then, you know, up here I still think the rains that are getting are going to be more beneficial than destructive right now.

>> Ross, I didn't let you really answer much about pasture conditions.

We kind of just kind of quickly, who's hurting, who's doing well right now?

Who's this rain benefiting?

We know that it's dry and certain parts of the world, but is there someone that has been quietly doing okay?

>> I mean, as far as the majority of Iowa is doing really good, and that's something to keep in mind as we move forward just around national corn and bean yield.

But you know where I'm at by Sioux City, Western Iowa, it I mean, we've been struggling.

But this rain, no question.

I mean, it helps the pasture conditions.

You get out into Nebraska.

It's been really tough out that way.

But you even look I mean there is you get out west.

I mean a lot of cattle country.

I mean it's still a struggle on the on the drought map.

So it's just really a I think Jeff said it on the main show.

It's a it's a case of the haves and have nots as far as terms of moisture.

And it's crazy.

He talks about feeling like the rain forest here, but where I'm at only three hours from here, it's been complete opposite.

Other than these rains, we finally just got.

>> And that's been the gradient for the last couple of years.

And that's just what we've had to deal with.

All right.

Let's let's talk let's take this one.

Maybe not so much war on this answer.

Jeff.

I'm not trying to prompt you too much, but Dennis in Michigan wants to know on wheat 2026 wheat sell or hang on to it and how much war.

We've talked a lot about the war, but let's talk about the moisture level on some of these spring.

We've already seen it.

What it did to the winter crop, but to the spring crop.

>> Yeah.

I mean, the winter crop, especially the hard red.

I mean, it was down almost, you know, 45, 50% compared to last year.

I mean, it's it definitely was not a very good crop.

But, you know, again, I like to sell strength.

These are some of the prices that we have not seen in the last 3 or 4 years.

Take advantage on a certain percentage of bushels.

And then, you know, look for some downside protection on paper because these geopolitical events, they can end very quickly.

And we've seen it in the past.

>> I mean, that chart right there, it was 5.95 to over $7.

Is seven one of those magic numbers Farage right now on wheat.

>> That draws bushels out of the bin.

I mean, you talk to enough guys, you put a seven in front of it where you haven't seen that in a few years.

Absolutely.

You'll get some bushels down.

>> All right, all right.

What about the five in front of the corn market?

>> Oh, absolutely.

I mean we we had we had corn above $5 for six days back in May.

Absolutely.

That got some farmers selling.

No question about it.

>> So what prompts us to get to put a five in front?

>> I think a couple of things.

I mean, number one, this thing in Russia and Ukraine is not solved anytime soon.

You know, Ukraine is the fourth largest corn exporter in the world.

And if they can't move their corn, they got to come to us.

I mean, we're the next big step before Brazil has their crop in.

So number.

And then if they continue to move the yield down in the subsequent reports here in the next few months and shrink the size of the U.S.

Corn crop, we can get a five in front.

Absolutely.

>> And just to reiterate, you already gave us the 12 lecture in the previous.

So I'm not going to make you do all the numbers, Stan.

I'm going to make Ross do some numbers.

Is there a number in live cattle that we need to be watching?

>> Live cattle, I would say right now in the nearby.

We've continued kind of holding support.

I would say down at this 220 level.

Honestly, I think that cattle.

We're probably closer to the lower end of the range for right now than anything.

But the struggle with cattle that every producer is more mindful of right now than anything is.

We're in a period right now where our break evens are, are so high that there's already unhedged cattle that are significantly underwater right now.

But if you go 30 days down the road from now, unhedged cattle industry wide, it's going to be the largest losses that we have seen throughout this cycle yet.

So that's really the struggle, is you have a lot of break evens that are 240 plus 250 plus.

I mean, there's even 260 plus cattle out there.

So that that's the risk then for feeder cattle also is you get 30 days from now if there's big losses going on across the industry that finally really hammers feeder cattle.

So it's not that we necessarily, from a future standpoint, need to go a heck of a lot lower.

I mean, futures are they're around.

We've actually violated major support, I would say here with today's trade.

But we had a nice recovery.

I would say, I mean, only closing down a dollar after the news that we got yesterday.

And one really good thing is cash was yes, early this week.

I mean, we were 228 to 232.

I would say the Packers were trying to buy cattle at 222 to 223 this morning when the board was getting hammered, it actually got back up to 229 here.

So we've seen a heck of a recovery even in the cash markets just today.

>> And I just want to go back a few seconds on what you just said about something.

Just give us a reminder.

Some of this can fall apart in a hurry.

>> Absolutely.

>> And what is someone what do you need to do?

>> Manage your risk.

I mean, if.

Absolutely guys, you really just need to be mindful.

It's the same thing when corn or beans.

I mean, you got to manage your risk.

And you know, with cattle you don't have the luxury of storing it like you do with corn or beans.

And you can fight the market longer with cattle.

It's a product that we have an expiration period on it, and we have to deliver it.

And you have to pick a point to manage that risk.

And the struggle that we've had in the cattle industry with is where feeder cattle have went over the last several months.

It's been difficult to manage or get a floor in place that didn't just protect a loss, but you got to remember, over the last few years, guys were so wildly profitable that even if it did, it should have helped.

You just put in a small loss of a floor.

But there are there's tools out there.

I mean, whether it's buying a put, selling a call or LRP or something, there's at least tools out there to minimize or mitigate this risk.

And I just don't see that changing because the fear is the snowballs in motion right now of the border reopening and, and slaughter being 8% lower and packing plants going offline.

None of this has a good ending.

And I don't think we're at the worst of it yet.

I don't think it's completely over either, because of the tight supplies that we still have in the U.S.

We can't forget that.

And look at cash today, right?

>> That that part of the equation hasn't gone away.

>> Correct.

So but you still got to manage the risk because there will come a point where we go down to $2.

And $2 is a disaster for the industry with where Breakevens are.

>> He's supposed to end on something positive, but I did it to us.

Jeff.

I'm sorry.

>> Don't be.

Give me a few more minutes and I can give you something.

>> [LAUGHTER] >> He's just getting warm.

That's Ross Baldwin everybody.

Thank you so very much.

Thanks, Paul.

Jeff French great to see you as well.

Thank you.

>> Thank you Paul.

>> Great to have you two in the studio next week we are going to look at that land battle that's brewing over data centers.

And Chris Robinson will be with us.

Thanks for joining us.

Have a